Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$9.3K
$4.25
88¢ → 84¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 88.6¢ | $5.1K | $4.9K | -$268.24 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 87¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$110.29 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $849.51 | $1.2K | +$382.78 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $88.27 | $107.35 | +$19.08 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $44.89 | $62.48 | +$17.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.2¢ | $43.39 | $44.87 | +$1.48 |
RN1Invested
$5,135.65
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$268.24
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$3,237.44
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$110.29
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$849.51
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$382.78
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$88.27
Value
$107.35
PnL
+$19.08
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.