Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Arsenal FC?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.4K
$110.02
96.7¢ → 94.4¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.6¢ | $974.85 | $953.63 | -$21.22 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $130.05 | $263.36 | +$133.31 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 96.8¢ | $106.43 | $103.02 | -$3.41 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $89.01 | $89.17 | +$0.16 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.21 | $4.39 | +$1.18 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $0.19 | $0.19 | +$0 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
Invested
$974.85
Value
$953.63
PnL
-$21.22
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$130.05
Value
$263.36
PnL
+$133.31
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$106.43
Value
$103.02
PnL
-$3.41
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$89.01
Value
$89.17
PnL
+$0.16
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$3.21
Value
$4.39
PnL
+$1.18
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.19
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.