Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$3.5K
-$407.49
91.1¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $3.6K | $3.3K | -$284.41 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 9.3¢ | $85.75 | $147.66 | +$61.91 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $56.8 | $56.68 | -$0.12 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $5.51 | $6.78 | +$1.27 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $187.73 | $1.58 | -$186.14 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
RN1Invested
$3,605.74
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$284.41
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$85.75
Value
$147.66
PnL
+$61.91
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$56.8
Value
$56.68
PnL
-$0.12
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$5.51
Value
$6.78
PnL
+$1.27
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$187.73
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$186.14
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.