Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.1¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$9.1K

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares12,300

Combined PnL+$8.4K

No6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares6,112

Combined PnL+$634.31

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 29.8¢	$3.6K	$12.1K	+$8.5K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
RN1CTR	Noavg 61.9¢	$4.1K	$4.7K	+$588.26	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 90¢	$359.06	$339.11	+$5.98	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$138.44	$170.8	+$32.36	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.6¢	$76.26	$90.52	+$14.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.6¢	$62.18	$80.27	+$18.09
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 83¢	$166	$170	+$4	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 83¢	$124.5	$127.5	+$3	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$49.9	$82.71	+$32.8	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 91¢	$47.32	$44.2	+$0.26	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
BE berlinskies<$100	Yesavg 56.8¢	$51.85	$13.69	-$38.16	58% 5897-4320 (10217)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$17.34	$6.5	-$10.84	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$3,625.94

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

RN1CTR

Invested

$4,084.26

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$588.26

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$359.06

Value

$339.11

PnL

+$5.98

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$138.44

Value

$170.8

PnL

+$32.36

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

Both legs:

No$76.2671.6¢+$14.26

Yes$62.1811.6¢+$18.09

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$166

Value

$170

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$124.5

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$3

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$49.9

Value

$82.71

PnL

+$32.8

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$47.32

Value

$44.2

PnL

+$0.26

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

berlinskies<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.85

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$38.16

Record

58%

5897-4320 (10217)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.34

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$10.84

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.