Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Arsenal FC O/U 4.5 Corners
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$1.4K
$17.78
49.7¢ → 51.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Overavg 50¢ | $449 | $457.98 | +$8.98 | 49% 1197-1224 (2421) |
 poshposh | Overavg 49¢ | $348.75 | $355.87 | +$7.12 | 58% 10631-7605 (18236) |
 Basquetipster | Overavg 50¢ | $336 | $336 | +$0 | 68% 1673-770 (2443) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Overavg 49.6¢ | $208.31 | $209.99 | +$1.68 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
HY hydra1248CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $63 | $63 | +$0 | 55% 12-10 (22) |
Invested
$449
Value
$457.98
PnL
+$8.98
Record
49%
1197-1224 (2421)
poshposhInvested
$348.75
Value
$355.87
PnL
+$7.12
Record
58%
10631-7605 (18236)
BasquetipsterInvested
$336
Value
$336
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
1673-770 (2443)
Invested
$208.31
Value
$209.99
PnL
+$1.68
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Invested
$63
Value
$63
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
12-10 (22)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.