Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$7.5K
-$171.9
58¢ → 56.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Mastermoney | Yesavg 58¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$172.41 | 47% 220-246 (466) |
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$58.7 | 72% 6820-2615 (9435) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$54.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.1¢ | $667.98 | $672.36 | +$4.38 | |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $350.65 | $357.09 | +$6.44 | 53% 16099-14267 (30366) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56¢ | $211.16 | $213.04 | +$1.89 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.1¢ | $139.49 | $144.05 | +$4.56 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $67.81 | $68.42 | +$0.51 | 57% 29194-21587 (50781) |
Invested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$172.41
Record
47%
220-246 (466)
Invested
$2,189.07
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$58.7
Record
72%
6820-2615 (9435)
Both legs:
Invested
$350.65
Value
$357.09
PnL
+$6.44
Record
53%
16099-14267 (30366)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.81
Value
$68.42
PnL
+$0.51
Record
57%
29194-21587 (50781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.