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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.2K
-$2.61
86¢ → 86¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 86¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$0 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 86¢ | $510.68 | $510.68 | -$0 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 85.8¢ | $508.79 | $435.01 | -$1.62 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $24.19 | $24.02 | -$0.17 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $3.16 | $2.33 | -$0.83 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
RN1Invested
$1,266.72
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$510.68
Value
$510.68
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$508.79
Value
$435.01
PnL
-$1.62
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$24.19
Value
$24.02
PnL
-$0.17
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$0.83
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.