Exact Score: Leeds United FC 1 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 91¢ · $801 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$800.87
-$10.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91¢ | $701.81 | $692.81 | +$0.2 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $50 | $40.91 | -$9.09 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $21.9 | $20.57 | -$1.33 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $18.34 | $16.84 | -$1.5 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $120.37 | $13.84 | +$4.21 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $14.21 | $10.21 | -$4 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $4.96 | $5.58 | +$0.62 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $0.12 | $0.1 | -$0.02 | 49% 14983-15895 (30878) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$701.81
Value
$692.81
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$40.91
PnL
-$9.09
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$20.57
PnL
-$1.33
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$18.34
Value
$16.84
PnL
-$1.5
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$120.37
Value
$13.84
PnL
+$4.21
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$14.21
Value
$10.21
PnL
-$4
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$5.58
PnL
+$0.62
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
14983-15895 (30878)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.