Exact Score: Ipswich Town FC 0 - 1 AFC Bournemouth?
2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 85¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 17%
$3.9K
-$28.66
91.3¢ → 85.4¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $2.9K | $2.7K | -$180.98 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 90.7¢ | $655.44 | $618.58 | -$36.85 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $147.36 | $230.55 | +$83.19 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $131.7 | $153.36 | +$21.67 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $80.8 | $90.85 | +$10.05 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $16.13 | $85 | +$68.87 | 28% 1154-3035 (4189) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $5.05 | $4.47 | +$0.87 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $1.27 | $4 | +$2.73 | 63% 33619-19478 (53097) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $2.05 | $3.72 | +$1.67 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $1.51 | $1.36 | -$0.08 | 48% 3364-3590 (6954) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.72 | $0.77 | +$0.05 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $0.17 | $0.32 | +$0.15 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
RN1Invested
$2,854.37
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$180.98
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$655.44
Value
$618.58
PnL
-$36.85
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
Invested
$147.36
Value
$230.55
PnL
+$83.19
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$131.7
Value
$153.36
PnL
+$21.67
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$80.8
Value
$90.85
PnL
+$10.05
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$16.13
Value
$85
PnL
+$68.87
Record
28%
1154-3035 (4189)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.05
Value
$4.47
PnL
+$0.87
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$4
PnL
+$2.73
Record
63%
33619-19478 (53097)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$1.67
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$1.51
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
3364-3590 (6954)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$0.77
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.32
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.