Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Hull City AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$5.1K
-$3
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR fraagenCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$0 | 46% 54-63 (117) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 51¢ | $365.16 | $365.16 | +$0 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 51¢ | $277.44 | $277.44 | -$2.72 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 51¢ | $102.26 | $102.26 | +$0 | 53% 15892-14085 (29977) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $28.76 | $28.48 | -$0.28 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
Invested
$4,312
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
54-63 (117)
Invested
$365.16
Value
$365.16
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$277.44
Value
$277.44
PnL
-$2.72
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$102.26
Value
$102.26
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15892-14085 (29977)
Invested
$28.76
Value
$28.48
PnL
-$0.28
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.