Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hull City AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 27¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
$1.4K
-$29.13
24.7¢ → 26.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 24.7¢ | $680.88 | $672.71 | -$8.17 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 76¢ | $455.97 | $452.97 | -$3 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
RO Rocko33 | Overavg 97¢ | $169.75 | $151.38 | -$18.38 | 63% 1114-643 (1757) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $53.36 | $53.36 | -$0 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $14.71 | $15.35 | +$0.32 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.93 | +$0.03 | 48% 2393-2622 (5015) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 21.8¢ | $1.44 | $1.48 | +$0.05 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 11¢ | $0.12 | $0.15 | +$0.03 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
Invested
$680.88
Value
$672.71
PnL
-$8.17
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
0xheavy888Invested
$455.97
Value
$452.97
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$169.75
Value
$151.38
PnL
-$18.38
Record
63%
1114-643 (1757)
Invested
$53.36
Value
$53.36
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$14.71
Value
$15.35
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
2393-2622 (5015)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$1.48
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.