Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ipswich Town FC (80%) · Ipswich Town FC at 99¢ · $533 held · ended Oct 31

Hull City AFC<1¢Ipswich Town FC>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ipswich Town FC

Consensus Traders

Ipswich Town FC 80%

Total Value

$532.63

Combined PnL

-$51.21

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 99.3¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralIpswich Town FC at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ipswich Town FC

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hull City AFC1%

Ipswich Town FC99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ipswich Town FC4 traders

Total Value$532.26

Total Shares599

Combined PnL-$51.38

Hull City AFC1 trader

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.18

Ipswich Town FC — 80%Hull City AFC — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Ipswich Town FCavg 95.4¢	$300.93	$269.75	-$31.18	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhost	Ipswich Town FCavg 97.6¢	$142.74	$122.53	-$20.21	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
CA Cannae	Ipswich Town FCavg 86¢	$114.84	$114.84	+$0	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ipswich Town FCavg 86¢	$25.14	$25.14	+$0	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Hull City AFCavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.38	+$0.18	49% 7982-8322 (16304)

UpTheBlues

Ipswich Town FC

Invested

$300.93

Value

$269.75

PnL

-$31.18

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost

Ipswich Town FC

Invested

$142.74

Value

$122.53

PnL

-$20.21

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Cannae

Ipswich Town FC

Invested

$114.84

Value

$114.84

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

ghorrock<$100

Ipswich Town FC

Invested

$25.14

Value

$25.14

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Hull City AFC

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Research grade

NeutralIpswich Town FC at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Ipswich Town FC

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ipswich Town FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.