Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 63¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 33%
$21.3K
$61.72
63.3¢ → 62.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 63.3¢ | $12.3K | $12.4K | +$128.86 | 74% 6647-2370 (9017) |
HO hovistomaradonaCTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $6.3K | $6.1K | -$170.51 | — 9-5 (14) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$101.78 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $73.08 | $73.08 | +$0 | 50% 6989-6984 (13973) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $63 | $64 | +$1 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $40.95 | $41.6 | +$0.65 | 58% 28550-21073 (49623) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $35.44 | $36.45 | -$0.51 | 53% 15932-14110 (30042) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $2.97 | $3.09 | +$0.12 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $5.8 | $0.55 | +$0.32 | 58% 41739-30322 (72061) |
Invested
$12,261.3
Value
$12.4K
PnL
+$128.86
Record
74%
6647-2370 (9017)
Invested
$6,308.75
Value
$6.1K
PnL
-$170.51
Record
—
9-5 (14)
Invested
$2,442.78
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$101.78
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
Invested
$73.08
Value
$73.08
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6989-6984 (13973)
Invested
$63
Value
$64
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
Invested
$40.95
Value
$41.6
PnL
+$0.65
Record
58%
28550-21073 (49623)
Invested
$35.44
Value
$36.45
PnL
-$0.51
Record
53%
15932-14110 (30042)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.97
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$0.12
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
41739-30322 (72061)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.