Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-31?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 36¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$0.18

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,000

Combined PnL+$0

No3 traders

Total Value$27.7

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$0.18

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	47% 92-103 (195)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 63¢	$126.82	$164.1	+$2.4	74% 6647-2370 (9017)
└ No leg	Noavg 63¢	$106.56	$108.25	+$0.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$54.3	$55.86	+$1.55
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 64¢	$16.82	$16.82	-$0.13	53% 15932-14110 (30042)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 64¢	$7.68	$7.68	+$0	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.2	-$0.05	47% 2324-2589 (4913)

DolphinBallerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

92-103 (195)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$126.82

Value

$164.1

PnL

+$2.4

Record

74%

6647-2370 (9017)

Both legs:

No$106.5663¢+$0.85

Yes$54.335¢+$1.55

Cannae<$100

Invested

$16.82

Value

$16.82

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

15932-14110 (30042)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

2324-2589 (4913)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.