Will Hull City AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 79¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$27.52

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 78.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,647

Combined PnL+$23.34

Yes7 traders

Total Value$237.79

Total Shares898

Combined PnL+$4.18

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 78¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$11.84	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$92.16	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$98.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.3¢	$714.3	$523.84	-$190.46
CA Cannae	Noavg 72¢	$587.65	$591.73	+$4.08	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 71¢	$574.34	$582.43	+$8.09	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
AN Anon455	Noavg 78.8¢	$486.58	$484.85	-$1.72	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$164.73	$164.74	+$0.01	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.8¢	$33.64	$29.45	-$4.19	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$9.64	$16.94	+$7.3	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 69¢	$15.18	$15.51	+$0.33	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$12.95	$13.46	+$0.51	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$11.05	$11.78	+$0.72	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$7.77	$7.96	+$0.19	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.92	$3.92	+$0	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$0.96	$1.32	+$0.36	49% 7973-8309 (16282)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,846.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.84

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$1,922.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$92.16

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

Both legs:

No$1,207.9472.6¢+$98.3

Yes$714.329.3¢-$190.46

Cannae

Invested

$587.65

Value

$591.73

PnL

+$4.08

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$574.34

Value

$582.43

PnL

+$8.09

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

Anon455

Invested

$486.58

Value

$484.85

PnL

-$1.72

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$164.73

Value

$164.74

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.64

Value

$29.45

PnL

-$4.19

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.64

Value

$16.94

PnL

+$7.3

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$15.18

Value

$15.51

PnL

+$0.33

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.95

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$0.51

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$11.05

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$0.72

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.77

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.36

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.