Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Hull City AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 47¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
2 arb excluded
$2.5K
$92.45
56¢ → 46.5¢
-17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CORGIICTR | Yesavg 56¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$57.78 | 41% 394-565 (959) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $404 | $400 | -$4 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57¢ | $228 | $234 | +$6 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44¢ | $176 | $166 | -$10 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 44¢ | $336.05 | $362.66 | +$26.61 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 56¢ | $141.81 | $148.14 | +$6.33 | 74% 6673-2396 (9069) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $135.4 | $143.71 | +$8.31 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.6¢ | $74.47 | $78.3 | +$3.83 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47.5¢ | $60.93 | $65.41 | +$4.48 | |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $40.56 | $40.56 | -$0 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $25.96 | $26.64 | +$0.68 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $16.8 | $17.24 | +$0.44 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $6.46 | $7.07 | +$0.61 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
CORGIICTRInvested
$1,294.24
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$57.78
Record
41%
394-565 (959)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$404
Value
$400
PnL
-$4
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Both legs:
Invested
$336.05
Value
$362.66
PnL
+$26.61
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$141.81
Value
$148.14
PnL
+$6.33
Record
74%
6673-2396 (9069)
Invested
$135.4
Value
$143.71
PnL
+$8.31
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Both legs:
RN1<$100Invested
$40.56
Value
$40.56
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Invested
$25.96
Value
$26.64
PnL
+$0.68
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$17.24
PnL
+$0.44
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$6.46
Value
$7.07
PnL
+$0.61
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.