Exact Score: Everton FC 1 - 2 Manchester United FC?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $521 held · ended Sep 6

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sun, Sep 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$520.87

Combined PnL

$98.43

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 90.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$353.53

Total Shares391

Combined PnL+$6.32

Yes2 traders

Total Value$167.34

Total Shares1,676

Combined PnL+$92.11

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 89¢	$374.18	$347.31	+$6.49	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$31.25	$84.08	+$64.33	28% 1133-2905 (4038)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$55.47	$83.26	+$27.79	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 93¢	$6.39	$6.22	-$0.17	50% 25814-25509 (51323)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$374.18

Value

$347.31

PnL

+$6.49

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.25

Value

$84.08

PnL

+$64.33

Record

28%

1133-2905 (4038)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.47

Value

$83.26

PnL

+$27.79

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$6.39

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.