Will Everton FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$1.52
76¢ → 76.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 76¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$7.88 | 50% 28611-28439 (57050) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $165 | $155.65 | -$9.35 | 51% 1642-1552 (3194) |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $86.92 | $154.26 | +$3.85 | 64% 10093-5697 (15790) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $114.48 | $116.77 | +$2.29 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23¢ | $35.92 | $37.49 | +$1.56 | |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $71.99 | $73.55 | +$1.56 | 64% 10069-5627 (15696) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $72 | $70.5 | -$1.5 | 48% 3353-3569 (6922) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $23.07 | $22.95 | +$0.15 | 52% 8850-8040 (16890) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $15.3 | +$0.1 | 48% 61881-66739 (128620) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $6.35 | $5.99 | -$0.36 | 50% 1602-1633 (3235) |
Invested
$1,197.08
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$7.88
Record
50%
28611-28439 (57050)
Invested
$165
Value
$155.65
PnL
-$9.35
Record
51%
1642-1552 (3194)
Invested
$86.92
Value
$154.26
PnL
+$3.85
Record
64%
10093-5697 (15790)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.99
Value
$73.55
PnL
+$1.56
Record
64%
10069-5627 (15696)
Invested
$72
Value
$70.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
48%
3353-3569 (6922)
Invested
$23.07
Value
$22.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
8850-8040 (16890)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$15.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
61881-66739 (128620)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$5.99
PnL
-$0.36
Record
50%
1602-1633 (3235)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.