Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-08?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 63¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$26.78

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 62.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,186

Combined PnL-$0.08

No5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,583

Combined PnL-$26.7

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 61¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0	64% 2037-1134 (3171)
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$46.38	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 37¢	$314.5	$331.5	+$17	64% 10176-5763 (15939)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 39.3¢	$106.55	$104.5	-$2.05	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$71.51	$75.38	+$3.87	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 40.3¢	$66.89	$67.75	+$0.86	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 63.2¢	$10.19	$9.84	-$0.08	45% 95-117 (212)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$1,933.72

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

2037-1134 (3171)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$1,205.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$46.38

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$314.5

Value

$331.5

PnL

+$17

Record

64%

10176-5763 (15939)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$106.55

Value

$104.5

PnL

-$2.05

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$71.51

Value

$75.38

PnL

+$3.87

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$66.89

Value

$67.75

PnL

+$0.86

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.19

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.08

Record

45%

95-117 (212)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.