Coventry City FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 91¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$142.33

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 91¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,486

Combined PnL+$115.48

Over4 traders

Total Value$85.46

Total Shares417

Combined PnL+$26.85

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 87.2¢	$4.4K	$4.6K	+$191.93	65% 200-106 (306)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 85.5¢	$238.63	$173.01	-$65.62	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$30	$50	+$20	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 88.5¢	$41.97	$30.34	-$11.63	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 79¢	$24.49	$24.34	-$0.15	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$19.11	$19.57	+$0.46	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
SB sbimbg<$100	Underavg 86¢	$14.05	$14.87	+$0.82	70% 3149-1361 (4510)
RN1<$100	Underavg 79¢	$11.29	$11.43	+$0.14	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$3.08	$9.62	+$6.54	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 12.8¢	$6.42	$6.28	-$0.15	49% 7982-8322 (16304)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$4,447.43

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$191.93

Record

65%

200-106 (306)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$238.63

Value

$173.01

PnL

-$65.62

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$50

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$41.97

Value

$30.34

PnL

-$11.63

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$24.49

Value

$24.34

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.11

Value

$19.57

PnL

+$0.46

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

sbimbg<$100

Under

Invested

$14.05

Value

$14.87

PnL

+$0.82

Record

70%

3149-1361 (4510)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$11.29

Value

$11.43

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.08

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$6.54

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.42

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.