Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Coventry City FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 41¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$2.0K
$139.76
45.1¢ → 41¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 47.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$2.2 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 32.9¢ | $172.71 | $345.99 | +$173.28 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 72.9¢ | $226.43 | $134.73 | -$30.3 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Underavg 72.8¢ | $53.57 | $58.1 | +$4.53 | 65% 1708-928 (2636) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 72.5¢ | $49.28 | $43.52 | -$5.76 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $3.65 | $3.95 | -$0.08 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $0.83 | $1.12 | +$0.29 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
Invested
$1,437.46
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$2.2
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$172.71
Value
$345.99
PnL
+$173.28
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
0xheavy888Invested
$226.43
Value
$134.73
PnL
-$30.3
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$53.57
Value
$58.1
PnL
+$4.53
Record
65%
1708-928 (2636)
Invested
$49.28
Value
$43.52
PnL
-$5.76
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
Invested
$0.83
Value
$1.12
PnL
+$0.29
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.