Coventry City FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$7.5K
$472.62
91.6¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ZaiZoiBele | Overavg 95¢ | $5.3K | $5.4K | +$111.96 | 80% 5044-1245 (6289) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 75.4¢ | $929.58 | $1.2K | +$235.49 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 9¢ | $525.6 | $759.2 | +$233.6 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Underavg 5¢ | $250 | $150 | -$100 | 59% 30480-21187 (51667) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 25.1¢ | $36.11 | $33.9 | -$2.21 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 25.9¢ | $9.42 | $3.27 | -$6.15 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $0.53 | $0.45 | -$0.08 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$5,275.55
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$111.96
Record
80%
5044-1245 (6289)
Invested
$929.58
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$235.49
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
RN1CTRInvested
$525.6
Value
$759.2
PnL
+$233.6
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$250
Value
$150
PnL
-$100
Record
59%
30480-21187 (51667)
Invested
$36.11
Value
$33.9
PnL
-$2.21
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$3.27
PnL
-$6.15
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.