Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-31?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $927 held · ends Oct 31

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$926.93

Combined PnL

$44.69

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 59.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$901.73

Total Shares1,431

Combined PnL+$47.41

Yes2 traders

Total Value$25.2

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$2.72

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 59.7¢	$1.1K	$741.64	+$34.71	58% 41850-30387 (72237)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 58¢	$147.38	$160.09	+$12.71	74% 6670-2388 (9058)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$16.4	$14.8	-$1.6	53% 15944-14125 (30069)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$11.52	$10.4	-$1.12	53% 2174-1925 (4099)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,050.65

Value

$741.64

PnL

+$34.71

Record

58%

41850-30387 (72237)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$147.38

Value

$160.09

PnL

+$12.71

Record

74%

6670-2388 (9058)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.4

Value

$14.8

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

15944-14125 (30069)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.52

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.