Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sunderland AFC, while the market favors Coventry City FC (90%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sunderland AFC (80%) · Sunderland AFC at 10¢ · $415 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Sunderland AFC
5
Sunderland AFC 80%
1 arb excluded
$415.44
-$90.95
82.4¢ → 10¢
-88% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSunderland AFC at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Coventry City FC 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Sunderland AFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Sunderland AFCavg 82.5¢ | $586.15 | $252.6 | -$333.55 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
| └ Coventry City FC leg | Coventry City FCavg 59¢ | $126.85 | $191.35 | +$64.5 | |
| └ Sunderland AFC leg | Sunderland AFCavg 82.5¢ | $459.3 | $61.25 | -$398.05 | |
FO fooooolCTR | Sunderland AFCavg 87¢ | $111.51 | $92.28 | -$19.23 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
RE retarb<$100 | Coventry City FCavg 14¢ | $8.16 | $51.87 | +$43.71 | 48% 4219-4491 (8710) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Sunderland AFCavg 86¢ | $121.25 | $15.51 | -$105.74 | 62% 13708-8572 (22280) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Sunderland AFCavg 41¢ | $10.42 | $2.8 | -$7.63 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Sunderland AFCavg 71¢ | $2.45 | $0.38 | -$2.07 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
Invested
$586.15
Value
$252.6
PnL
-$333.55
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.51
Value
$92.28
PnL
-$19.23
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$51.87
PnL
+$43.71
Record
48%
4219-4491 (8710)
Invested
$121.25
Value
$15.51
PnL
-$105.74
Record
62%
13708-8572 (22280)
Invested
$10.42
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$7.63
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$2.07
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.