Will Coventry City FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$76.24

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 97.4¢

+18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,976

Combined PnL-$33.9

Yes6 traders

Total Value$142.99

Total Shares1,557

Combined PnL-$42.34

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LZ lzh1	Noavg 71¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$11.57	43% 465-620 (1085)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 97.4¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$125.67	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 92.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$34.05	80% 5044-1245 (6289)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 73.9¢	$400.75	$479.8	+$79.06	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
oieshfn345	Noavg 85.9¢	$271.81	$283.18	+$11.36	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 84.5¢	$147.12	$168.93	+$21.81	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 70.9¢	$117.08	$118.11	+$1.03	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$109.63	$69.84	-$39.79	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$69.68	$62.31	-$7.38	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$30.23	$40.87	+$10.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.9¢	$39.45	$21.43	-$18.02
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$49.83	$46.45	-$3.38	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 71¢	$17.04	$17.16	+$0.12	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$16.5	$16.82	+$0.32	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$8.15	$8.95	+$0.8	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$6	$6.25	+$0.25	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.34	$2.44	+$0.11	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 71¢	$5.27	$2.34	+$0.08	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.03	$1.18	+$0.15	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

lzh1

Invested

$1,642.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$11.57

Record

43%

465-620 (1085)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,361.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$125.67

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$1,085.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.05

Record

80%

5044-1245 (6289)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$400.75

Value

$479.8

PnL

+$79.06

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

oieshfn345

Invested

$271.81

Value

$283.18

PnL

+$11.36

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$147.12

Value

$168.93

PnL

+$21.81

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$117.08

Value

$118.11

PnL

+$1.03

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

BillBenter2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.63

Value

$69.84

PnL

-$39.79

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.68

Value

$62.31

PnL

-$7.38

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

Both legs:

Invested

$49.83

Value

$46.45

PnL

-$3.38

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$17.04

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.82

PnL

+$0.32

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.44

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.