Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-10-31?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 70¢ · $416 held · ends Oct 31

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$416.08

Combined PnL

$4.65

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 69.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$253.55

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$0.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$162.53

Total Shares538

Combined PnL+$4.72

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 69¢	$244.35	$244.35	+$0	74% 6647-2370 (9017)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$84.39	$87.3	+$4.37	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.4¢	$70.18	$70.46	+$0.28	38% 385-628 (1013)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 70¢	$9.33	$9.2	-$0.07	53% 15932-14110 (30042)
DO DolphinBallerCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$4.77	$4.77	+$0.08	47% 92-103 (195)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$244.35

Value

$244.35

PnL

+$0

Record

74%

6647-2370 (9017)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.39

Value

$87.3

PnL

+$4.37

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.18

Value

$70.46

PnL

+$0.28

Record

38%

385-628 (1013)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$9.33

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

15932-14110 (30042)

DolphinBallerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

92-103 (195)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.