Coventry City FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 53¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$20.13

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 52.5¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,690

Combined PnL+$15.48

No4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,090

Combined PnL+$4.66

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CORGII	Yesavg 57¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$36.08	41% 394-565 (959)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Noavg 43¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$18.38	83% 3793-779 (4572)
FO foooool	Yesavg 51¢	$164.25	$215.87	+$51.62	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 48.1¢	$189.18	$175.15	-$14.03	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 55.9¢	$82.35	$81.75	-$0.6	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$13.75	$13.88	+$0.13	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$7.37	$7.62	+$0.26	57% 13805-10579 (24384)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$2.9	$2.93	+$0.03	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$2.3	$2.68	+$0.38	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
BU BunCaChamCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$1.25	$1.29	+$0.04	97% 2573-66 (2639)

CORGII

Yes

Invested

$4,113.1

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$36.08

Record

41%

394-565 (959)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Invested

$1,580.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$18.38

Record

83%

3793-779 (4572)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$164.25

Value

$215.87

PnL

+$51.62

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$189.18

Value

$175.15

PnL

-$14.03

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.35

Value

$81.75

PnL

-$0.6

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.75

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.37

Value

$7.62

PnL

+$0.26

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

BunCaChamCTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.04

Record

97%

2573-66 (2639)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.