Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 93¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$40.23

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 93¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,693

Combined PnL+$24.64

Over5 traders

Total Value$458.22

Total Shares6,559

Combined PnL+$15.59

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 92.3¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$17.43	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
RN1CTR	Overavg 7.1¢	$387.35	$404.75	+$17.4	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 79¢	$74.26	$79.43	+$5.17	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 79¢	$67.15	$68.85	+$1.7	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
fxwd12345CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$50	$45	-$5	69% 1503-682 (2185)
AR ARocky33<$100	Underavg 87.3¢	$27.94	$29.44	+$1.5	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 93¢	$13.15	$11.98	-$1.18	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$33.35	$5.58	+$3.19	58% 1008-738 (1746)
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8<$100	Underavg 80¢	$4.07	$4.12	+$0.03	65% 200-106 (306)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 7.4¢	$5.57	$2.73	+$0	58% 2161-1596 (3757)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 3.8¢	$0.16	$0.17	+$0	53% 4616-4152 (8768)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$5,043.32

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$17.43

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$387.35

Value

$404.75

PnL

+$17.4

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$74.26

Value

$79.43

PnL

+$5.17

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$67.15

Value

$68.85

PnL

+$1.7

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

fxwd12345CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50

Value

$45

PnL

-$5

Record

69%

1503-682 (2185)

ARocky33<$100

Under

Invested

$27.94

Value

$29.44

PnL

+$1.5

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$13.15

Value

$11.98

PnL

-$1.18

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.35

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$3.19

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8<$100

Under

Invested

$4.07

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

200-106 (306)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.57

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

2161-1596 (3757)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.