Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 63¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
10
Under 100%
$14.6K
-$202.78
62.2¢ → 62.5¢
+1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 62¢ | $7.9K | $8.0K | +$63.88 | 47% 2473-2784 (5257) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 62.6¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$121.28 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 62.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$99.57 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 62¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$13.08 | 52% 4716-4430 (9146) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 62.3¢ | $1.0K | $965.24 | -$53.9 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Underavg 62¢ | $146.32 | $139.24 | +$1.18 | 45% 676-832 (1508) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 62.2¢ | $56.76 | $53.81 | -$2.95 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $53.55 | $50.15 | -$3.4 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $39.68 | $40 | +$0.32 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $17.8 | $16.41 | -$0.14 | 55% 1728-1422 (3150) |
Invested
$7,920.88
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$63.88
Record
47%
2473-2784 (5257)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,131.49
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$121.28
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$1,827.37
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$99.57
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Invested
$1,622.32
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$13.08
Record
52%
4716-4430 (9146)
Invested
$1,019.14
Value
$965.24
PnL
-$53.9
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$146.32
Value
$139.24
PnL
+$1.18
Record
45%
676-832 (1508)
Invested
$56.76
Value
$53.81
PnL
-$2.95
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
Invested
$53.55
Value
$50.15
PnL
-$3.4
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Invested
$39.68
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$16.41
PnL
-$0.14
Record
55%
1728-1422 (3150)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
Under — $8.0K
VeryLucky888
Under — $2.0K
GoalLineGhost
Under — $1.7K
hi774c
Under — $1.6K
38791873984189
Under — $965.24
AnonymousUsername
Under — $139.24
ghorrock
Under — $53.81
LuckyLoo
Under — $50.15
LeLynxMalynx
Under — $40
VD721lsj4938Dk388
Under — $16.41