Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 60¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31

Over60¢Under40¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$87.7

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares8,325

Combined PnL-$88.28

Under4 traders

Total Value$85.26

Total Shares209

Combined PnL+$0.58

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Mastermoney	Overavg 60.1¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$88.28	46% 204-239 (443)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 59.7¢	$243.23	$244.58	+$2.45	53% 15940-14117 (30057)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.7¢	$130.65	$129.19	-$0.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 40¢	$112.58	$115.39	+$2.81
CH chongchong37CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$41	$40.5	-$0.5	54% 106-89 (195)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$26.4	$27.06	+$0.66	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 39.8¢	$15.23	$15.67	+$0.45	57% 13766-10533 (24299)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.03	-$0.03	48% 2366-2607 (4973)

Mastermoney

Over

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$88.28

Record

46%

204-239 (443)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$243.23

Value

$244.58

PnL

+$2.45

Record

53%

15940-14117 (30057)

Both legs:

Over$130.6559.7¢-$0.37

Under$112.5840¢+$2.81

chongchong37CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

106-89 (195)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.4

Value

$27.06

PnL

+$0.66

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.23

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$0.45

Record

57%

13766-10533 (24299)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2366-2607 (4973)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.