Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 0.5

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $92K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$91.7K

Combined PnL

-$830.59

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 99.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$85.1K

Total Shares89,595

Combined PnL-$898.51

Under9 traders

Total Value$308.98

Total Shares5,635

Combined PnL+$67.92

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 96¢	$74.6K	$73.8K	-$777.21	95% 58-3 (61)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 92¢	$5.7K	$6.3K	+$575.98	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
└ Over leg	Overavg 92¢	$5.1K	$4.7K	-$359.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 5.7¢	$613.12	$1.5K	+$935.62
0F 0F62	Overavg 95¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$64.24	53% 2077-1862 (3939)
fxwd12345	Overavg 94¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$0	69% 1503-682 (2185)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.47	49% 19156-19549 (38705)
RN1	Overavg 85¢	$458.72	$393.99	-$64.72	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 95¢	$256.31	$254.96	-$1.35	58% 2161-1596 (3757)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 4¢	$135	$168.75	+$33.75	52% 4731-4450 (9181)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 91¢	$134.9	$147.5	+$12.6	63% 1111-641 (1752)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 5.5¢	$15.87	$41.47	+$25.6	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$27.95	$28.95	+$1	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 97¢	$31.51	$22.46	-$9.06	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$25.85	$20.68	-$5.17	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 7.2¢	$10.05	$20.32	+$10.27	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 4.5¢	$5.1	$16.33	+$11.23	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 95¢	$10.07	$10.07	-$0	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 5.2¢	$3.65	$6.68	+$3.03	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
bernardi22CTR<$100	Underavg 1.8¢	$16.59	$4.55	-$12.05	56% 1284-998 (2282)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$1	$1.25	+$0.25	62% 1149-697 (1846)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$74,612.04

Value

$73.8K

PnL

-$777.21

Record

95%

58-3 (61)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,707.64

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$575.98

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

Both legs:

Over$5,094.5192¢-$359.65

Under$613.125.7¢+$935.62

0F62

Over

Invested

$6,274.72

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$64.24

Record

53%

2077-1862 (3939)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$3,133.02

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

1503-682 (2185)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$1,082.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.47

Record

49%

19156-19549 (38705)

RN1

Over

Invested

$458.72

Value

$393.99

PnL

-$64.72

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$256.31

Value

$254.96

PnL

-$1.35

Record

58%

2161-1596 (3757)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$135

Value

$168.75

PnL

+$33.75

Record

52%

4731-4450 (9181)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$134.9

Value

$147.5

PnL

+$12.6

Record

63%

1111-641 (1752)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.87

Value

$41.47

PnL

+$25.6

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.95

Value

$28.95

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$31.51

Value

$22.46

PnL

-$9.06

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.85

Value

$20.68

PnL

-$5.17

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.05

Value

$20.32

PnL

+$10.27

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.1

Value

$16.33

PnL

+$11.23

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$10.07

Value

$10.07

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.65

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$3.03

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

bernardi22CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.59

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$12.05

Record

56%

1284-998 (2282)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

62%

1149-697 (1846)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.