Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Chelsea FC O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$3.5K
$40.98
55.2¢ → 52.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL OldZz | Overavg 59¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$23.5 | 47% 97-111 (208) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Overavg 52¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$26.15 | 53% 2174-1925 (4099) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 41¢ | $633.86 | $618.4 | -$15.46 | 54% 56596-48765 (105361) |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 53.2¢ | $129.94 | $138.09 | +$8.15 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.3¢ | $47.96 | $43.7 | +$1.8 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.8¢ | $43.36 | $40.2 | -$3.17 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
Invested
$1,386.5
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$23.5
Record
47%
97-111 (208)
Invested
$1,192.22
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$26.15
Record
53%
2174-1925 (4099)
RN1CTRInvested
$633.86
Value
$618.4
PnL
-$15.46
Record
54%
56596-48765 (105361)
Invested
$129.94
Value
$138.09
PnL
+$8.15
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
Invested
$47.96
Value
$43.7
PnL
+$1.8
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$43.36
Value
$40.2
PnL
-$3.17
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.