Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester United FC (50%) · Manchester United FC at 89¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Manchester United FC
6
Manchester United FC 50%
$5.0K
$291.64
89.9¢ → 88.9¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralManchester United FC at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Manchester United FCavg 89.9¢ | $3.9K | $4.2K | +$276.19 | 50% 25095-24835 (49930) |
FO foooool | Manchester United FCavg 90¢ | $400 | $400 | +$0 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 RN1CTR | Chelsea FCavg 10.1¢ | $295.73 | $300.12 | +$4.39 | 54% 56596-48765 (105361) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 11¢ | $31.92 | $42.07 | +$10.16 | 50% 33395-32964 (66359) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 88.3¢ | $39.07 | $37.82 | -$1.26 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 3.9¢ | $1.35 | $3.52 | +$2.16 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
Invested
$3,895.78
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$276.19
Record
50%
25095-24835 (49930)
Invested
$400
Value
$400
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
RN1CTRInvested
$295.73
Value
$300.12
PnL
+$4.39
Record
54%
56596-48765 (105361)
Invested
$31.92
Value
$42.07
PnL
+$10.16
Record
50%
33395-32964 (66359)
Invested
$39.07
Value
$37.82
PnL
-$1.26
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$3.52
PnL
+$2.16
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.