Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Chelsea FC, while the market favors Manchester United FC (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea FC (60%) · Chelsea FC at 25¢ · $502 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Chelsea FC
5
Chelsea FC 60%
1 arb excluded
$501.89
$0.35
Research grade
AvoidChelsea FC at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Manchester United FC 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 27¢ | $470.22 | $427.75 | -$19.97 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
| └ Chelsea FC leg | Chelsea FCavg 27¢ | $261.09 | $241.75 | -$21.14 | |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 74.5¢ | $184.83 | $186 | +$1.17 | |
CA Cannae<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 75¢ | $34.5 | $34.5 | +$0 | 53% 15892-14085 (29977) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 72¢ | $21.03 | $22.05 | +$1.02 | 53% 722-639 (1361) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 25¢ | $9.77 | $9.77 | +$0 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 28¢ | $8.18 | $7.01 | -$1.17 | 45% 676-832 (1508) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 24¢ | $12 | $0.81 | +$0.5 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
Invested
$470.22
Value
$427.75
PnL
-$19.97
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.5
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15892-14085 (29977)
Invested
$21.03
Value
$22.05
PnL
+$1.02
Record
53%
722-639 (1361)
Invested
$9.77
Value
$9.77
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$7.01
PnL
-$1.17
Record
45%
676-832 (1508)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
$0.81
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.