Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea FC (50%) · Chelsea FC at 96¢ · $45K held · ends Oct 31

Manchester United FC4¢Chelsea FC96¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chelsea FC

Consensus Traders

Chelsea FC 50%

Total Value

$45.2K

Combined PnL

$-6.0K

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 96.3¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralChelsea FC at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chelsea FC

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Manchester United FC4%

Chelsea FC96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chelsea FC2 traders

Total Value$45.1K

Total Shares52,722

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Manchester United FC2 traders

Total Value$116.08

Total Shares2,772

Combined PnL+$29.37

Chelsea FC — 50%Manchester United FC — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Chelsea FCavg 97¢	$51.1K	$45.0K	$-6.1K	53% 2077-1862 (3939)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 3.1¢	$82.37	$96.16	+$13.79	50% 25065-24808 (49873)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Chelsea FCavg 96.5¢	$37.64	$33.35	-$4.29	58% 28670-21162 (49832)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 3.2¢	$4.34	$19.92	+$15.58	57% 13799-10572 (24371)

0F62

Chelsea FC

Invested

$51,113.78

Value

$45.0K

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

53%

2077-1862 (3939)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$82.37

Value

$96.16

PnL

+$13.79

Record

50%

25065-24808 (49873)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$37.64

Value

$33.35

PnL

-$4.29

Record

58%

28670-21162 (49832)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$4.34

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$15.58

Record

57%

13799-10572 (24371)

Research grade

NeutralChelsea FC at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chelsea FC

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chelsea FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.