Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea FC (100%) · Chelsea FC at 89¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Chelsea FC
5
Chelsea FC 100%
$4.6K
$168.54
88.1¢ → 88.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralChelsea FC at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Chelsea FCavg 88.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$92.81 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
CA Cannae | Chelsea FCavg 88.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$73.39 | 53% 15944-14125 (30069) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 88¢ | $65.12 | $67.71 | +$2.59 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 89.5¢ | $52.32 | $51.74 | -$0.58 | 57% 13799-10572 (24371) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 89¢ | $11.79 | $12.12 | +$0.33 | 55% 1741-1433 (3174) |
Invested
$2,387.44
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$92.81
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$1,931.46
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$73.39
Record
53%
15944-14125 (30069)
Invested
$65.12
Value
$67.71
PnL
+$2.59
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
Invested
$52.32
Value
$51.74
PnL
-$0.58
Record
57%
13799-10572 (24371)
Invested
$11.79
Value
$12.12
PnL
+$0.33
Record
55%
1741-1433 (3174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.