Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$5.9

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 77.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,957

Combined PnL-$32.35

Yes5 traders

Total Value$383.67

Total Shares1,436

Combined PnL+$26.44

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cbs710	Noavg 77.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$32.08	76% 105-34 (139)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 22.6¢	$364.69	$222.23	+$14.13	46% 7901-9318 (17219)
97 0x9703...69c2CTR	Yesavg 22¢	$110.21	$119.94	+$9.73	—
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$16.5	$17.62	+$0.75	53% 15879-14069 (29948)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$14.48	$15.8	+$1.32	57% 13591-10418 (24009)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$12.34	$12.24	-$0.1	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 75¢	$10.53	$10.33	-$0.16	52% 3992-3635 (7627)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$7.56	$8.07	+$0.52	38% 377-619 (996)

Cbs710

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$32.08

Record

76%

105-34 (139)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$364.69

Value

$222.23

PnL

+$14.13

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

0x9703...69c2CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.21

Value

$119.94

PnL

+$9.73

Record

—

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.5

Value

$17.62

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

15879-14069 (29948)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.48

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$1.32

Record

57%

13591-10418 (24009)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$12.34

Value

$12.24

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$10.33

PnL

-$0.16

Record

52%

3992-3635 (7627)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.56

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$0.52

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.