Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$23.89

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,695

Combined PnL+$25.22

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,191

Combined PnL-$1.33

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 70¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$10.65	51% 1445-1388 (2833)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$30.2	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 59¢	$118	$174	+$36	54% 4883-4114 (8997)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 57.8¢	$106.85	$107.3	+$0.45	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 58.2¢	$58.84	$58.67	-$0.17	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
RO Rocko33<$100	Underavg 88¢	$20	$22.72	+$2.72	63% 1111-641 (1752)
MI MinevaJ<$100	Underavg 62.9¢	$76.99	$20.01	-$2.31	58% 1008-738 (1746)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 60¢	$18.3	$17.69	-$0.61	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$17.74	$5.02	-$12.72	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
RE retarbCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$4.14	$4.89	+$0.75	48% 4219-4491 (8710)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.55	-$0.2	47% 4567-5072 (9639)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 8.8¢	$9.29	$2.04	-$7.25	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$13.02	$0.71	-$12.31	59% 10160-7156 (17316)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$1,491

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$10.65

Record

51%

1445-1388 (2833)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$1,232.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30.2

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$118

Value

$174

PnL

+$36

Record

54%

4883-4114 (8997)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$106.85

Value

$107.3

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$58.84

Value

$58.67

PnL

-$0.17

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

Rocko33<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$22.72

PnL

+$2.72

Record

63%

1111-641 (1752)

MinevaJ<$100

Under

Invested

$76.99

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$2.31

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$18.3

Value

$17.69

PnL

-$0.61

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.74

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$12.72

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

retarbCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

4219-4491 (8710)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

4567-5072 (9639)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.29

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$7.25

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.02

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$12.31

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.