Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 0 - 1 Manchester United FC?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 14¢ · $69 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$68.57
$25.49
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $22.3 | $36.75 | +$14.45 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $9.14 | $14.74 | +$5.6 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $6.21 | $12.05 | +$5.84 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $5.44 | $5.03 | -$0.4 | 53% 725-641 (1366) |
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$22.3
Value
$36.75
PnL
+$14.45
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Invested
$9.14
Value
$14.74
PnL
+$5.6
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.21
Value
$12.05
PnL
+$5.84
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$5.44
Value
$5.03
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
725-641 (1366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.