Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$1.0K
-$119.02
57¢ → 97.3¢
+71% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731 | Overavg 57¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$119.98 | 32% 729-1552 (2281) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $13.58 | $13.58 | +$0 | 52% 139-127 (266) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $6.84 | $6.84 | +$0.06 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $0.82 | $1.72 | +$0.9 | 59% 10160-7156 (17316) |
Invested
$1,139.79
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$119.98
Record
32%
729-1552 (2281)
Invested
$13.58
Value
$13.58
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
139-127 (266)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$6.84
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
poshposh<$100Invested
$0.82
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.9
Record
59%
10160-7156 (17316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.