Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 79¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$4.33

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 78.5¢

+71% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,647

Combined PnL-$10.02

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,489

Combined PnL+$5.69

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Shimi1234	Overavg 46.2¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$12.07	38% 107-171 (278)
ReformedxCTR	Underavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0	52% 824-773 (1597)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	32% 729-1552 (2281)
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR	Underavg 53¢	$250	$254.71	+$4.72	52% 139-127 (266)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 50¢	$24.4	$25.35	+$0.95	59% 30467-21185 (51652)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 82¢	$16.4	$17.5	+$1.1	55% 8303-6696 (14999)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 46¢	$5.98	$5.85	+$0	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.18	$1.15	+$0.97	59% 10160-7156 (17316)

Shimi1234

Over

Invested

$3,244.72

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$12.07

Record

38%

107-171 (278)

ReformedxCTR

Under

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

824-773 (1597)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$1,150.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

729-1552 (2281)

0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR

Under

Invested

$250

Value

$254.71

PnL

+$4.72

Record

52%

139-127 (266)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$24.4

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$0.95

Record

59%

30467-21185 (51652)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$16.4

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$1.1

Record

55%

8303-6696 (14999)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.98

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.18

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.97

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.