Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 62¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 31

Yes62¢No38¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

$16.47

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 61.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares26,951

Combined PnL-$40.02

No12 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares16,059

Combined PnL+$56.5

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793	Yesavg 64.3¢	$9.9K	$9.9K	-$44.72	63% 158-92 (250)
DA DaBossHogg	Yesavg 64¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	+$0	51% 214-204 (418)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 36¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Noavg 36¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	83% 3793-779 (4572)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 35¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$30.72	74% 6672-2394 (9066)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 36.4¢	$831.22	$855.94	+$24.72	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 36.3¢	$420.58	$358.2	+$1.59	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
FO Forecastication2	Yesavg 63.1¢	$317.22	$321.92	+$4.7	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 35.7¢	$214	$216	+$2	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 35.7¢	$203.14	$204.58	+$1.44	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 36¢	$153.72	$153.72	+$0	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 37.8¢	$78.83	$74.99	-$3.84	50% 33395-32964 (66359)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$13.38	$13.32	-$0.05	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 36.6¢	$12.12	$11.92	-$0.2	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$9.19	$9.31	+$0.12	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$6.4	$6.4	+$0	51% 1445-1388 (2833)

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793

Yes

Invested

$9,924.91

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$44.72

Record

63%

158-92 (250)

DaBossHogg

Yes

Invested

$7,040

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

214-204 (418)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,488.69

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Invested

$1,323.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

83%

3793-779 (4572)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$1,075.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.72

Record

74%

6672-2394 (9066)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$831.22

Value

$855.94

PnL

+$24.72

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$420.58

Value

$358.2

PnL

+$1.59

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

Forecastication2

Yes

Invested

$317.22

Value

$321.92

PnL

+$4.7

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$214

Value

$216

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$203.14

Value

$204.58

PnL

+$1.44

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$153.72

Value

$153.72

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$78.83

Value

$74.99

PnL

-$3.84

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.38

Value

$13.32

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$12.12

Value

$11.92

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$9.19

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1445-1388 (2833)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.