Will Brentford FC win on 2026-11-08?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 100¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

-$228.83

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares24,571

Combined PnL-$205.38

Yes1 trader

Total Value$12.55

Total Shares3,137

Combined PnL-$23.44

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE beautifulobsession	Noavg 77.9¢	$10.1K	$9.7K	-$439.68	66% 99-51 (150)
RN1	Noavg 96.8¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$70.36	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$5.95	90% 5111-579 (5690)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 88.3¢	$658.81	$743.21	+$84.39	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 92.6¢	$1.3K	$682.61	+$88.41	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
VE Venusian	Noavg 98.4¢	$648.47	$656.49	+$8.02	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI Limousin	Noavg 99.7¢	$603.93	$605.73	+$1.81	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 99.8¢	$582.27	$580.91	-$1.35	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 89.5¢	$157.97	$176.34	+$18.38	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
AH aHjCz	Noavg 98.6¢	$120.79	$122.4	+$1.61	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 99.8¢	$160.38	$116.66	-$43.72	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 74¢	$77.13	$77.65	+$0.52	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$35.99	$12.55	-$23.44	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 74¢	$5.18	$5.22	+$0.04	53% 17085-15197 (32282)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$3.85	$3.73	-$0.12	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

beautifulobsession

Invested

$10,115

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$439.68

Record

66%

99-51 (150)

RN1

Invested

$5,254.97

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$70.36

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

nonkenny90

Invested

$2,457.82

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$5.95

Record

90%

5111-579 (5690)

38791873984189

Invested

$658.81

Value

$743.21

PnL

+$84.39

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Pan9X

Invested

$1,286.64

Value

$682.61

PnL

+$88.41

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Venusian

Invested

$648.47

Value

$656.49

PnL

+$8.02

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Limousin

Invested

$603.93

Value

$605.73

PnL

+$1.81

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LightParadox

Invested

$582.27

Value

$580.91

PnL

-$1.35

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$157.97

Value

$176.34

PnL

+$18.38

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

aHjCz

Invested

$120.79

Value

$122.4

PnL

+$1.61

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

MadridTime

Invested

$160.38

Value

$116.66

PnL

-$43.72

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$77.13

Value

$77.65

PnL

+$0.52

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.99

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$23.44

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

17085-15197 (32282)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.