Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 57¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 31

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$87.25

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 57.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,670

Combined PnL+$99.08

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,721

Combined PnL-$11.82

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 56.5¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$98.66	51% 212-207 (419)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 43.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$20.82	45% 670-829 (1499)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Overavg 57¢	$855	$855	-$0	54% 1263-1072 (2335)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 43¢	$645	$645	+$7.5	58% 41528-30164 (71692)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 43¢	$531.3	$531.3	+$6.18	53% 5579-4944 (10523)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 43.4¢	$503.99	$499.66	-$4.33	46% 8032-9481 (17513)
MA manoamano<$100	Overavg 57¢	$49.01	$49.01	+$0	51% 468-451 (919)
CA Cannae<$100	Overavg 55¢	$46	$47.67	+$0.42	53% 15887-14071 (29958)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$30.1	$30.1	-$0.35	58% 28432-20995 (49427)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$5,651.35

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$98.66

Record

51%

212-207 (419)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$1,634.59

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$20.82

Record

45%

670-829 (1499)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Over

Invested

$855

Value

$855

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1263-1072 (2335)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$645

Value

$645

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

41528-30164 (71692)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$531.3

Value

$531.3

PnL

+$6.18

Record

53%

5579-4944 (10523)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$503.99

Value

$499.66

PnL

-$4.33

Record

46%

8032-9481 (17513)

manoamano<$100

Over

Invested

$49.01

Value

$49.01

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

468-451 (919)

Cannae<$100

Over

Invested

$46

Value

$47.67

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

15887-14071 (29958)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.1

Value

$30.1

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

28432-20995 (49427)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.