Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (69%) · Over at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over78¢Under22¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 69%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$468.91

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 78¢

-15% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,270

Combined PnL-$324.28

Under5 traders

Total Value$466.56

Total Shares2,103

Combined PnL-$144.63

Over — 69%Under — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$892.83	-$250.68	98% 13071-207 (13278)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.9¢	$573.84	$423.09	-$150.75	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 76.8¢	$260.24	$242.23	-$18.01	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
AN Anon455	Overavg 60¢	$150	$195	+$45	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 97¢	$200	$160.82	-$39.18	63% 1114-643 (1757)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 97¢	$200	$160.82	-$39.18	77% 3315-1006 (4321)
AR ARocky33	Overavg 87.8¢	$133.79	$118.86	-$14.93	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 82¢	$52.63	$48.92	-$3.71	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$27.47	$30.21	+$2.75	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 89¢	$9.91	$8.68	-$1.22	95% 23023-1157 (24180)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 91¢	$10	$8.57	-$1.43	67% 23336-11741 (35077)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 87¢	$9.3	$8.34	-$0.96	55% 8305-6697 (15002)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 33.2¢	$7.95	$5.27	-$2.68	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$1.41	$4.44	+$3.03	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 3.3¢	$0.53	$3.55	+$3.03	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 79¢	$2.97	$2.98	+$0.01	57% 13809-10582 (24391)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$1,143.51

Value

$892.83

PnL

-$250.68

Record

98%

13071-207 (13278)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$573.84

Value

$423.09

PnL

-$150.75

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$260.24

Value

$242.23

PnL

-$18.01

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$150

Value

$195

PnL

+$45

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$160.82

PnL

-$39.18

Record

63%

1114-643 (1757)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$160.82

PnL

-$39.18

Record

77%

3315-1006 (4321)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$133.79

Value

$118.86

PnL

-$14.93

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$52.63

Value

$48.92

PnL

-$3.71

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.47

Value

$30.21

PnL

+$2.75

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$9.91

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$1.22

Record

95%

23023-1157 (24180)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$8.57

PnL

-$1.43

Record

67%

23336-11741 (35077)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$9.3

Value

$8.34

PnL

-$0.96

Record

55%

8305-6697 (15002)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.95

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$2.68

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.41

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$3.03

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.53

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$3.03

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$2.97

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.