Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nottingham Forest FC (40%) · Nottingham Forest FC at 72¢ · $920 held · ended Oct 31

Brentford FC28¢Nottingham Forest FC72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nottingham Forest FC

Consensus Traders

Nottingham Forest FC 40%

Total Value

$919.74

Combined PnL

-$62.51

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 72¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNottingham Forest FC at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nottingham Forest FC

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Brentford FC28%

Nottingham Forest FC72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nottingham Forest FC4 traders

Total Value$729.98

Total Shares1,012

Combined PnL-$49.12

Brentford FC6 traders

Total Value$189.76

Total Shares693

Combined PnL-$13.39

Nottingham Forest FC — 40%Brentford FC — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nottingham Forest FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNottingham Forest FC 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBrentford FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNottingham Forest FC 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nottingham Forest FC 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Nottingham Forest FCavg 76.2¢	$546.04	$515.94	-$30.1	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Brentford FCavg 33¢	$138.6	$117.6	-$21	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
poshposh	Nottingham Forest FCavg 76¢	$114	$108	-$6	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
FO foooool	Nottingham Forest FCavg 81¢	$106.6	$94.76	-$11.84	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Brentford FCavg 24¢	$36	$42	+$6	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Brentford FCavg 22¢	$17.26	$18.04	+$0.78	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
GH ghorrock<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 79.5¢	$12.47	$11.29	-$1.18	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Brentford FCavg 25¢	$8.47	$9.49	+$1.02	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Brentford FCavg 32¢	$1.7	$1.48	-$0.21	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Brentford FCavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.15	+$0.03	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

UpTheBlues

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$546.04

Value

$515.94

PnL

-$30.1

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Brentford FC

Invested

$138.6

Value

$117.6

PnL

-$21

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

poshposh

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$114

Value

$108

PnL

-$6

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

foooool

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$106.6

Value

$94.76

PnL

-$11.84

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Brentford FC

Invested

$36

Value

$42

PnL

+$6

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Brentford FC

Invested

$17.26

Value

$18.04

PnL

+$0.78

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

ghorrock<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$12.47

Value

$11.29

PnL

-$1.18

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Brentford FC

Invested

$8.47

Value

$9.49

PnL

+$1.02

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Brentford FC

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Brentford FC

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralNottingham Forest FC at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nottingham Forest FC

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nottingham Forest FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNottingham Forest FC 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBrentford FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNottingham Forest FC 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nottingham Forest FC 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nottingham Forest FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.