Will Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$161.24

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 99.8¢

+17% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,935

Combined PnL+$100.99

Yes4 traders

Total Value$124.5

Total Shares1,706

Combined PnL-$262.23

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 90.8¢	$967.43	$1.0K	+$76.15	57% 1729-1293 (3022)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 73¢	$324.36	$333.24	+$8.89	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 84.5¢	$233.6	$254.55	+$20.95	52% 13790-12592 (26382)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$120.61	$86.47	-$34.14	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 93¢	$66.96	$57.24	-$9.72	74% 1592-569 (2161)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 20.6¢	$259.4	$31.8	-$227.6	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 72¢	$27.36	$28.5	+$1.14	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 77¢	$23.43	$22.83	-$0.61	62% 13708-8572 (22280)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$11.5	$14.96	+$3.46	54% 6286-5324 (11610)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.15	$4.94	+$0.79	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.56	$4.07	-$0.49	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
TO torta.tech<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.75	-$0.1	63% 8134-4874 (13008)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 74¢	$2.85	$2.88	+$0.04	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.16	$2.16	+$0	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

oieshfn345

Invested

$967.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$76.15

Record

57%

1729-1293 (3022)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$324.36

Value

$333.24

PnL

+$8.89

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$233.6

Value

$254.55

PnL

+$20.95

Record

52%

13790-12592 (26382)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$120.61

Value

$86.47

PnL

-$34.14

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$66.96

Value

$57.24

PnL

-$9.72

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$259.4

Value

$31.8

PnL

-$227.6

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$27.36

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$1.14

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$23.43

Value

$22.83

PnL

-$0.61

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$3.46

Record

54%

6286-5324 (11610)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

torta.tech<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

8134-4874 (13008)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.