Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 51¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$8.3

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 51¢

-20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares11,334

Combined PnL-$442.57

No7 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares12,780

Combined PnL+$450.87

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 66¢	$5.1K	$4.7K	-$384.3	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
CORGII	Yesavg 60¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$58.14	41% 394-565 (959)
AR ARocky33CTR	Noavg 34¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$191.45	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
RO Rocky31CTR	Noavg 34¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$191.17	74% 1592-569 (2161)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Noavg 40¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$66.66	83% 3793-779 (4572)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 48.3¢	$842.54	$845.48	+$2.94	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
FO foooool	Yesavg 52.4¢	$323.98	$352.97	+$29	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$64.1	$46.55	-$17.55	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$43.6	$32.43	-$11.17	95% 23022-1157 (24179)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$23.95	$23.55	-$0.41	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$15.08	$14.68	-$0.4	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$4.77	$3.82	-$0.94	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$3.15	$3.15	+$0	57% 13805-10579 (24384)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$5,072.8

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$384.3

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

CORGII

Yes

Invested

$1,744.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$58.14

Record

41%

394-565 (959)

ARocky33CTR

Invested

$1,299.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$191.45

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

Rocky31CTR

Invested

$1,299.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$191.17

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Invested

$1,333.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$66.66

Record

83%

3793-779 (4572)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$842.54

Value

$845.48

PnL

+$2.94

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$323.98

Value

$352.97

PnL

+$29

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.1

Value

$46.55

PnL

-$17.55

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.6

Value

$32.43

PnL

-$11.17

Record

95%

23022-1157 (24179)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.95

Value

$23.55

PnL

-$0.41

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$15.08

Value

$14.68

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$0.94

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.