Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 55¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$13.1K
$282.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR fraagen | Noavg 53.9¢ | $10.3K | $10.5K | +$117.1 | 47% 54-62 (116) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $780 | $830.87 | +$50.87 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $793.29 | $735 | +$48.83 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $590.99 | $629.53 | +$38.54 | 53% 15855-14037 (29892) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $272.78 | $290.57 | +$17.79 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $81.01 | $86.29 | +$5.28 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $39.41 | $41.09 | +$1.68 | 65% 1690-913 (2603) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $31.74 | $33.81 | +$2.07 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
Invested
$10,345.48
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$117.1
Record
47%
54-62 (116)
Invested
$780
Value
$830.87
PnL
+$50.87
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$793.29
Value
$735
PnL
+$48.83
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$590.99
Value
$629.53
PnL
+$38.54
Record
53%
15855-14037 (29892)
Invested
$272.78
Value
$290.57
PnL
+$17.79
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
Invested
$81.01
Value
$86.29
PnL
+$5.28
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
Invested
$39.41
Value
$41.09
PnL
+$1.68
Record
65%
1690-913 (2603)
Invested
$31.74
Value
$33.81
PnL
+$2.07
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.