AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 81¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$534.53

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 81¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares8,435

Combined PnL+$695.6

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares8,709

Combined PnL-$161.06

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 73.5¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$473.52	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 77.9¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$147.46	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
RN1CTR	Overavg 18¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$144.36	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
TO tomb2456CTR	Overavg 29¢	$870	$570	-$300	50% 292-288 (580)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 79.8¢	$380.22	$407.12	+$26.91	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
0xheavy888	Underavg 71.5¢	$400	$330	+$44	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 82¢	$74.45	$66.01	-$8.44	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 72¢	$41.04	$46.17	+$5.13	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 69.8¢	$30.03	$35.91	+$5.88	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$10.15	$4.73	-$5.43	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 72¢	$3.96	$4.46	+$0.5	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
RO Rocky31<$100	Underavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.05	+$0.65	74% 1592-569 (2161)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,672.1

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$473.52

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,994.56

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$147.46

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,018.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$144.36

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

tomb2456CTR

Over

Invested

$870

Value

$570

PnL

-$300

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$380.22

Value

$407.12

PnL

+$26.91

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$330

PnL

+$44

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$74.45

Value

$66.01

PnL

-$8.44

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$41.04

Value

$46.17

PnL

+$5.13

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$30.03

Value

$35.91

PnL

+$5.88

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.15

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$5.43

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Rocky31<$100

Under

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.65

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.